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DAILY STACK
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Five stories ranked by Real-Life Impact
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Wednesday, May 13, 2026
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Today's Thesis: Your paycheck lost buying power for the first time in three years yesterday, the S&P's six-week streak is cracking, Trump lands in Beijing this morning to try a new path on Iran, and the shelter adjustment the DHS shutdown left behind just made your June mortgage quote worse — one CPI print rewrote every line in your household budget.
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Walmart, The War In Iran, And A Margarita On The Beach
Five years from now, there are going to be two types of retirees in America.
One is greeting strangers at Walmart in a blue vest. Not because they want to. Because the war in Iran was the first domino that knocked their retirement sideways and they never saw it coming.
The other is sitting on a beach with a margarita. Not because they got lucky. Because they understood what the Iran war was really about and made one simple move.
Here's what most people are missing.
The war in Iran isn't about nukes. It's about oil being sold in yuan instead of dollars.
Every barrel that leaves the dollar system makes your savings worth less. And 40 countries are following Iran's lead.
The retiree at Walmart kept everything in the same 401(k) their advisor set up ten years ago. They watched the dollar weaken. They watched inflation eat their savings. They hoped somebody in Washington would fix it. Nobody did.
The retiree on the beach moved a portion of their retirement into the one asset that goes up when the dollar goes down. Took 15 minutes. No taxes. No penalties. And they slept fine while everyone else panicked.
Same starting point. Same savings. One decision made the difference.
A free report called "The Great Gold Reset" shows you exactly what the Iran war means for your dollars, why it's accelerating a shift that was already underway, and the simple move that separates the Walmart greeters from the beach retirees.
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1
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Your wallet
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CPI 3.8% · real wages negative
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Your raise just got eaten — real wages went negative yesterday
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April CPI came in at 3.8% year over year — the highest since May 2023 and a full percentage point above where it was before the war started in February. Core CPI hit 0.4% month over month, above the 0.3% forecast, with shelter costs boosted by a one-time adjustment from the DHS shutdown last fall. For the first time since April 2023, inflation-adjusted hourly wages went negative — meaning your paycheck buys less this month than it did last month. Gasoline is up 28.4% from a year ago, food prices climbed 0.5% in a single month, and energy accounted for more than 40% of the entire CPI increase. The war didn't just raise your gas bill — it caught up to your grocery receipt and your rent.
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The other side: The shelter spike includes a one-time payback from the DHS shutdown's disrupted rent surveys — strip that out and core runs closer to 0.3%, which is warm but not alarming.
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2
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Markets
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S&P -0.7% · Nasdaq -1% · PPI today
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The six-week streak cracked — and PPI lands this morning
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The S&P 500 fell 0.7% Tuesday and the Nasdaq dropped 1% after the hot CPI print. Oil jumped 3% — WTI back above $101, Brent above $108 — adding fuel to the inflation trade that's been punishing growth stocks. April PPI drops at 8:30 AM this morning, and a hot producer-price print would confirm that the cost pressure isn't just at the pump. Cisco and Alibaba both report today, testing enterprise tech and Chinese consumer demand in the same session.
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The other side: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker is pointing to 3.7% Q2 growth, and earnings are still running at an 83% beat rate — the market is selling on inflation, not on a growth scare.
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3
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Your vote
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3-day summit · Iran + trade + Taiwan
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Trump lands in Beijing today — with oil, trade, and Taiwan on the table
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Trump arrives in Beijing this morning for a three-day state visit with Xi Jinping — the biggest US-China summit since 2017. Iran, trade, rare earth supplies, and Taiwan are all on the agenda. After calling Iran's deal offer "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE" on Sunday, the China channel is now the administration's best remaining path to a Hormuz breakthrough — and Boeing and Mastercard CEOs are traveling with the delegation.
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The other side: The Council on Foreign Relations called this a stabilization meeting, not a deal-making one — and with US resources diverted to the Middle East, China holds the stronger hand at the table.
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4
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Your home
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Core 0.4% · shelter payback from shutdown
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The DHS shutdown is still raising your rent — months later
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Core CPI came in at 0.4% — the hottest monthly reading since January 2025. A chunk of that came from a one-time shelter adjustment: the DHS shutdown last fall disrupted the BLS rent surveys, and the correction showed up in yesterday's print. If you're rate-shopping for a mortgage, that 0.4% core number is what the 10-year yield reacts to — and it moved the wrong way.
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The other side: The shelter payback is a known one-off — Pantheon Macroeconomics flagged it in advance — so May's core number should revert closer to 0.2-0.3%, which gives spring buyers a slightly better backdrop next month.
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5
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Your money
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Rate hikes discussed · Warsh arrives Fri
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Rate hikes are back in the conversation — and Warsh takes over Friday
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Northlight Asset Management's CIO said Tuesday that rate hikes could be priced in for next year if inflation keeps heading the wrong direction. The Senate is expected to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed chair this week, and Powell's final day is Friday — Warsh inherits a 3.8% inflation print and a market now debating whether the next move is up, not down.
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The other side: Warsh was nominated with the expectation he'd push for lower rates, and the CME FedWatch tool still prices zero moves in either direction through year-end — rate hike talk is one analyst's view, not the market's base case.
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Off The Stack
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Cerebras prices its IPO this week at $125-$135 per share, valuing the Nvidia rival at $26-$27 billion. — The biggest AI chip IPO of the year, but pre-revenue for most retail investors and overshadowed by CPI.
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Wendy's jumped 9% on reports that Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Management is raising funds for a buyout bid. — A single-stock event, but the QSR sector is now a M&A target — worth watching if you hold fast-food names.
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Applied Materials reports Thursday — the last major AI fab-equipment earnings of the season. — Semiconductor capex gauge, but today's CPI-PPI pair and the Beijing summit own the macro tape.
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Daily Stack · Five stories ranked by Real-Life Impact
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