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1
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Your money
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Payrolls 8:30 AM · 85K expected · FOMC 11 days
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May payrolls drop at 8:30 — and your borrowing costs for the rest of 2026 ride on it
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The May nonfarm payrolls report lands at 8:30 this morning, and Wall Street expects just 85,000 new jobs — down from 115,000 in April and the softest forecast of the year. This is the last major labor reading before Warsh's first FOMC meeting on June 16-17. A weak number gives him room to hold rates and lets the 10-year yield keep falling toward 4.4%, which means cheaper mortgages and car loans. A hot number — anything above 150,000 — revives the rate-hike case and sends yields back up. Every labor signal this week has pointed a different direction: JOLTS beat by 700,000, ADP topped estimates at 122,000, but ISM Services employment came in at 48, deep in contraction.
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The other side: The market rallied through every data point this week — Dow to a record, S&P above 7,600 — so a miss may already be priced in, and a beat could trigger the first real selloff of June.
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2
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Travel
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WTI $92 · -4% Thu · Israel-Lebanon ceasefire
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Oil dropped 4% in a day after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire
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WTI crude fell 4% to $92 on Thursday after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a conditional ceasefire, pulling Brent down to $94.65. That's a $4 drop from Wednesday's $96 — and if it holds, jet fuel costs start easing and summer airfares lose their war premium. Meanwhile, SpaceX launched its IPO roadshow on Thursday at $135 a share, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation, with retail investors now able to request shares on Robinhood and SoFi. The listing is set for June 12 and would be the largest IPO in history.
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The other side: Netanyahu told CNBC that Israel and the US are "ready to return to military action against Iran if needed," and LPL's Kristian Kerr warned that investors are underestimating how oil prices could behave even after a deal — so the ceasefire may not hold and the oil floor may not break.
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3
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Your health
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AVGO -15% · Dow record · HC +2.9% · rotation
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Broadcom lost 15% and the Dow hit a record — the market split in two
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Broadcom fell 15% Thursday after reporting record revenue but failing to raise its $100 billion AI chip sales target — wiping out roughly $350 billion in market value. CrowdStrike dropped 10% on rising expenses. But the Dow climbed more than 1% to a fresh record as Health Care gained 2.9% and Financials rose 2.3%. The market didn't sell off — it rotated, and the winners and losers in your 401(k) depend on which side of that split your funds are sitting on.
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The other side: Broadcom's EPS of $2.44 still beat the $2.40 estimate, and several analysts — including at Cantor Fitzgerald — used the dip to upgrade the stock, calling the selloff overdone for a company that just posted record revenue.
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