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DAILY STACK
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Five stories ranked by Real-Life Impact
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Thursday, June 18, 2026
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Today's Thesis: Warsh held rates yesterday but half the Fed wants to hike before December, the dot plot pushed the median rate above the current range for the first time since March, yields surged, the Dow dropped 507 points after hitting an intraday record, SpaceX fell for the first time since its IPO, Retail Sales beat estimates at 0.9%, the Iran deal signing is tomorrow, and your mortgage rate, your 401(k), and whether the war is truly over are all being settled in the next 24 hours.
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Trump to Unleash Giant $2.7 Trillion Gold Mine?
According to Jim's research, he estimates it contains up to $2.7 trillion in gold, silver, copper, and other precious elements that could:
Build 12,500 AI data centers
Power 24 million tomahawk missiles
Rebuild America’s broken electric grid – 25 times over
Construct 3 million high-performance jet engines for the Air Force and Navy
And repair nearly every major bridge, skyscraper and pipeline across the country
But you need to act before June 30 to take advantage before the President makes his next move...
That’s when a landmark policy decision could reprice this $2 stock, overnight.
This opportunity is so explosive, it’s possible shares could skyrocket 50-times or more by the end of Trump’s term.
But – time’s running out.
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1
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Your home
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9 of 18 want hikes · median dot 3.8% · 2-yr +11bp
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Warsh held — but half the Fed wants to hike your rate before December
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The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% yesterday, as expected, in a 12-0 vote. The dot plot was the story: 9 of 18 officials now project at least one hike before year-end, and 6 of those see two hikes. The median dot for end-2026 moved to 3.8% — above the current range for the first time since March — meaning the average Fed official now thinks rates go up from here, not down. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 11 basis points to 4.15%, which flows straight into mortgage pricing. If you were shopping for a home or waiting for rates to ease, that timeline just got longer.
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The other side: Goldman Sachs says the base case is still that the Fed avoids hiking altogether — oil is down 10% since last week, and if the Iran deal sticks, the inflation driver behind the hawkish dots fades fast.
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2
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Your job
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Retail Sales +0.9% vs +0.5% est · gas receipts +3.4%
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Retail Sales blew past estimates — and that's why the Fed turned hawkish
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May Retail Sales came in at +0.9%, nearly double the 0.5% Wall Street expected and well above April's 0.4% gain. Gas station receipts alone rose 3.4% on war-era energy prices, but the gains were broad: furniture, e-commerce, and general merchandise all climbed. The control group, which strips out gas and autos and feeds directly into GDP, rose 0.7%. When the economy is still expanding this fast with CPI at 4.2%, the Fed has less reason to ease — and every reason to keep the hike option on the table.
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The other side: More than a third of the sales gain came from gas station receipts at inflated prices — not discretionary spending — and electronics sales actually fell 0.5%, suggesting consumers are pulling back where they can.
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3
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Markets
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Dow -507 · S&P -1.21% · $420B wiped in 30 min
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The Dow hit a record high and then lost 507 points — all in the same session
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The Dow touched a fresh all-time intraday record for the third straight day before reversing to close down 507 points. The S&P 500 lost 1.21%, the Nasdaq fell 1.34%, and about $420 billion in market value was erased in 30 minutes after the dot plot landed. SpaceX fell for the first time since its IPO, and Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon all closed lower.
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The other side: JPMorgan hit a new all-time high on Wednesday — banks win when rates stay elevated — and the Dow's selloff erased barely two days of gains, not the full rally since the Iran deal.
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4
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Your wallet
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Easing bias removed · PCE now 3.6% · 5 task forces launched
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Warsh rewrote the Fed playbook on day one — and the inflation forecast just got worse
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Warsh removed the easing bias from the policy statement, declined to submit his own dot, and launched five task forces to overhaul how the Fed communicates, manages its balance sheet, and measures inflation. The year-end PCE inflation forecast jumped from 2.7% in March to 3.6% now — meaning the Fed's own models say prices are running nearly twice its 2% target through December.
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The other side: Warsh's opacity is deliberate — by not submitting a dot, he keeps his options open and avoids being boxed in by a number that may be outdated by September if the Iran deal holds and oil keeps falling.
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5
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Your vote
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Iran signing tomorrow · markets closed Fri · last trading day
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The Iran deal signing is tomorrow — and today is the last trading day of the week
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The formal US-Iran peace deal signing is scheduled for tomorrow in Switzerland, and US markets are closed Friday for Juneteenth. That means today is the last chance to position before a weekend that could confirm the end of a 107-day war — or surface the kind of last-minute complications that have derailed every deal before this one.
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The other side: The MOU was already signed Tuesday, both sides have confirmed the framework, and the oil market has already priced in the deal — the Friday signing is more ceremony than cliff edge at this point.
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Off The Stack
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SpaceX fell for the first time since its Friday IPO debut, ending a five-session winning streak. — A pullback, not a breakdown; still up more than 50% from $135 and digesting a $60B acquisition.
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Tesla is down 10% for the year, but Wolfe Research says SpaceX is not cannibalizing its retail base. — Interesting for Musk watchers, but no direct consumer cost impact.
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Money markets now price an 87% chance of at least one Fed rate hike by year-end. — Confirming the dot plot signal, but no new action until at least the September meeting.
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Daily Stack · Five stories ranked by Real-Life Impact
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