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1
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Your home
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FOMC at 2 p.m. · 99% hold · dot plot · Warsh's first presser
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Warsh makes his first rate call at 2 p.m. — your mortgage depends on what he says next
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The Fed announces its rate decision at 2 p.m. today, followed by Warsh's first press conference as chair. The CME FedWatch tool puts the odds of holding at 3.50-3.75% at 99%, so the rate itself is not the story — the forward guidance is. The fresh dot plot showing where officials see rates headed for the rest of 2026 moves mortgage rates more than the decision itself. Two weeks ago, the inflation data pointed toward a hike. Now oil has crashed 10%, the Iran war is ending, and the energy spike that drove CPI to 4.2% is unwinding — giving Warsh room to signal that the tightening cycle has peaked.
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The other side: CPI is still 4.2%, PPI is 6.5%, and Warsh was brought in as a hawk — if he sounds too soft on his first day, the bond market will price in doubt about his credibility, and long-term rates could rise instead of fall.
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2
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Markets
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SPCX +56% from IPO · passed Amazon + Microsoft · $60B Cursor deal
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SpaceX passed Amazon and Microsoft in four days — and just spent $60 billion on Cursor
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SpaceX shares jumped 16% on Tuesday after announcing a $60 billion all-stock deal to buy Cursor, the AI coding tool used by millions of developers. The stock has gained 56% from its $135 IPO price in just four trading sessions, topping both Amazon and Microsoft by market value and making SpaceX the fourth most valuable company in the US at roughly $2.85 trillion. Cursor generated $2.6 billion in annualized business revenue and is one of the first AI products companies are actually paying for — which is why SpaceX paid 23 times revenue to own it. The deal was structured so none of the $85.7 billion in IPO proceeds were used — SpaceX paid entirely in stock.
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The other side: A 56% gain in four days for a $2.85 trillion company is territory where valuations detach from fundamentals, and Swissquote's senior analyst told Reuters this valuation "makes absolutely no sense today."
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3
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Your wallet
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Retail Sales at 8:30 a.m. · last spending read before Warsh speaks
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Retail Sales drops at 8:30 — and it tells Warsh whether consumers cracked under the war
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May Retail Sales data hits at 8:30 a.m. this morning — the last consumer spending number before Warsh speaks at 2 p.m. If spending held up despite $4+ gas and 4.2% CPI, consumers are still powering through, which gives the Fed less room to ease. If spending pulled back, the economy is doing the Fed's job for it, and the case for holding or signaling future cuts gets stronger. Either way, the number shapes how the market reads Warsh's tone this afternoon.
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The other side: The dot plot was already finalized before this morning's data, so the Retail Sales number will shape the market's reaction to the decision more than the decision itself.
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