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1
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Your wallet
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Oil +5.6% overnight
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Iran hit three tankers. Your gas relief is over.
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Iran struck three vessels near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday — a Qatari LNG tanker, a Saudi crude carrier, and a third ship. Hours later, the US Treasury revoked the sanctions waiver that let Iran sell its oil under last month’s MOU. Oil jumped 5.6% overnight, with Brent hitting $76 a barrel. Gas had dropped from $4.56 in May to $3.78 last week — six straight weeks of relief at the pump. That streak just ended.
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The other side: The Treasury gave Iran until July 17 to wind down existing sales, and both sides still have reasons to come back to the table.
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2
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Your home
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9-to-9 rate hike split
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The Fed’s June minutes drop at 2 PM
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The Fed releases minutes from its June 16–17 meeting at 2 PM ET today. The vote was unanimous, but the dot plot was a dead heat. Nine members project at least one rate hike this year, eight see no change, and one wants a cut. Chair Warsh refused to submit his own projection — the first Fed chair to skip the dot plot — and if the minutes lean hawkish, your 6.43% mortgage rate has room to climb.
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The other side: Warsh’s silence may be strategic — leaving himself room to hold rates through year-end if the economy softens.
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3
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Markets
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Dow record 53,056
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Your 401(k) just hit a high. Two tests land today.
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The Dow closed at a record 53,056 on Monday. The S&P 500 is up 21% year-over-year at 7,537. Both face a double test today: a 5.6% oil spike from the Iran tanker attacks and Fed minutes at 2 PM that could signal a rate hike is coming.
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The other side: Defense and energy stocks benefit from both catalysts, and the weak June jobs report still gives the Fed cover to hold.
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