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DAILY STACK
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Five stories ranked by Real-Life Impact
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Friday, June 19, 2026
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Today's Thesis: The war that started February 28 ended Wednesday night at the Palace of Versailles — oil dropped 14% in five days, gas prices are falling toward their lowest since winter, the Strait of Hormuz is reopening, sanctions are being lifted, but the follow-up talks in Switzerland were postponed overnight, oil bounced back above $80 on the news, half the Fed still wants to hike your rate, and your gas bill, your grocery costs, your mortgage quote, and your 401(k) are all adjusting to a world where the war is over but neither the inflation nor the diplomacy is finished.
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Trump Admin to Pump $1 Billion into this "Off-the-Radar" AI Stock
The U.S. government pumped more than $1 billion into Intel. The stock popped 128%. It pumped $400 million into MP Materials. The stock popped 200%. It bought 10% of Trilogy Metals. The stock popped 500%. And now, Trump has chosen this AI stock for a $1 billion payday.
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1
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Your vote
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Day 109 · signed at Versailles · Hormuz reopening · sanctions lifted
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Trump signed the Iran deal at the Palace of Versailles — the war is over
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Trump signed the 14-point memorandum of understanding Wednesday evening at the Palace of Versailles, two days ahead of schedule. Iranian President Pezeshkian signed separately in Tehran, and the deal took immediate effect on Thursday. The MOU reopens the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, lifts all US sanctions on Iran, and starts a 60-day clock for nuclear negotiations. But the follow-up talks planned for today in Switzerland have already been postponed — Vance canceled his trip, the Swiss foreign ministry confirmed the delay overnight, and oil rebounded above $80 on the news. The war that started February 28 and lasted 109 days is over on paper, but the 60-day clock is wobbling on day one.
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The other side: Senator Cassidy called it the worst foreign policy blunder in decades, the nuclear program was deferred rather than resolved, and the Switzerland postponement suggests the harder negotiations are already hitting resistance.
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2
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Your wallet
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Oil -14% in 5 days · sanctions lifting · Hormuz shipping resumes
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Oil dropped 14% this week — and the sanctions are coming off
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Crude oil fell 14% over five trading days as the deal moved from announcement to MOU to signed agreement. The sanctions being lifted mean Iranian oil flows back into global markets for the first time since the war started, adding supply that pushes prices lower. Gas at the pump has already dropped more than 40 cents a gallon from its peak, and the shipping costs baked into everything you buy — groceries, Amazon packages, furniture — start easing as Hormuz traffic normalizes. The 3.9% energy spike in last week's CPI report was the single biggest driver of 4.2% inflation, and that number should look very different next month.
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The other side: Oil rebounded above $80 overnight after the Switzerland talks were postponed — four months of elevated shipping and energy costs are already built into consumer prices, and if the deal stalls, the relief stalls with it.
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3
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Travel
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Hormuz open · safe passage 60 days · jet fuel dropping
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Hormuz is open — and your summer flights just got a little cheaper
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The MOU guarantees safe passage for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days, followed by negotiations with Oman on a long-term arrangement. Empty tankers were already lining up to enter Iranian ports on Thursday. Jet fuel tracks crude oil with about a two-week lag, so the 14% drop this week should start showing up in fare pricing by early July — right when the World Cup travel surge is peaking.
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The other side: Airlines already locked in fuel contracts at higher prices for the summer, so the savings may flow to airline margins before they flow to your ticket price.
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4
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Your money
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87% hike odds by Dec · dollar +0.5% · 2-yr at 4.15%
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The war ended — but the Fed still wants to hike your rate
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The dollar rallied 0.5% on Thursday as the hawkish Fed shift from Wednesday continued to ripple through markets. Money markets price an 87% chance of at least one rate hike by December, the 2-year yield sits at 4.15%, and the war ending doesn't erase the 4.2% CPI or the 0.9% Retail Sales beat that's keeping the Fed's finger near the trigger.
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The other side: If oil keeps falling and the energy spike reverses through the summer, those hawkish dots were written for a war economy that no longer exists — and the September FOMC could look very different.
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5
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Markets
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Nasdaq +1.5% Thu · S&P +1% · Dow +0.7% · closed today
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Markets rallied Thursday, and now they're closed until Monday
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The Nasdaq gained 1.5% on Thursday, the S&P rose 1%, and the Dow added 0.7%, recovering most of Wednesday's post-Fed selloff. Markets are closed today for Juneteenth — so Monday's open will be the first chance to trade on a full weekend of deal implementation, Hormuz traffic, and any surprises from the 60-day nuclear clock.
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The other side: The Switzerland talks were postponed overnight and oil is already rebounding — Monday's open could gap in either direction depending on whether the 60-day framework holds or fractures over the weekend.
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Off The Stack
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Accenture fell 14.3% on Thursday after missing earnings expectations and cutting guidance. — One company's guidance miss, not a sector-wide signal yet.
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Jobless claims came in at 226,000, roughly in line with estimates and still inside the normal range. — Steady, not moving the needle; labor market remains intact.
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Empty oil tankers were already lining up at Iranian ports on Thursday to load crude for export to Asia. — The supply is coming, but it takes weeks to reach refineries and pump prices.
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Daily Stack · Five stories ranked by Real-Life Impact
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