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DAILY STACK
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Five stories ranked by Real-Life Impact
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Monday, July 13, 2026
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Today's Thesis: Five bank earnings land Tuesday, Graham's seat is vacant mid-war, the Strait of Hormuz just closed, your mortgage rate hangs on the CPI print, and 440,000 grad students need new money by fall.
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1
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Markets
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5 banks, 1 morning, same day as CPI
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Five Banks Report the Same Morning as CPI
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JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all release Q2 earnings before Tuesday's opening bell — the same morning the CPI print lands. That's five profit reports and one inflation print in the same two-hour window. JPMorgan alone is expected to post $5.49 per share on $48.7 billion in revenue. The real signal is whether banks report rising consumer delinquencies or tighter lending — that moves your 401(k) more than the inflation number. Bank stocks led the S&P's rally all quarter — Tuesday tells you whether that bet holds.
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The other side: Analysts have raised bank estimates all quarter, and the sector is up strong this year — the bar is already set for a beat.
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2
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Your vote
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Special primary Aug. 11
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Graham's Death Opens a Senate Scramble
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Sen. Lindsey Graham died Saturday at 71 from what his office called a “brief and sudden illness,” hours after returning from Kyiv. The preliminary cause was aortic dissection — a rupture of his aorta. Gov. Henry McMaster will appoint a temporary replacement, with a special GOP primary set for August 11. Graham was already on the November ballot for a fifth term, and his death reshuffles defense leadership in the Senate during a shooting war with Iran.
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The other side: South Carolina hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1998, so the seat stays red — but the replacement fight could reshape foreign policy leadership during a war.
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3
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Your wallet
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$3.88/gal → $4+ if strait stays shut
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That Gas Price Drop Just Hit a Wall
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Iran attacked a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday and declared the waterway closed. The U.S. hit back with strikes on 140 Iranian targets, and Iran fired missiles at U.S. bases across six countries — Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait, Oman, and Jordan. Gas had dropped from $4.56 in May to $3.88 last week — six straight weeks of pump relief that now look finished. Oil futures barely moved Sunday night, but every weekend shrug this year has shown up at the pump a week later.
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The other side: The southern shipping lane through Hormuz is still open, and oil is well below its May peak — markets have been right to shrug so far.
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4
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Your home
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CPI forecast: 3.8%, down from 4.2%
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Tuesday Morning Decides Your Mortgage Rate
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The June CPI report drops at 8:30 a.m. ET Tuesday — headline inflation is expected at 3.8%, down from 4.2% in May. That would be the first real dip since the Iran war spiked energy costs in March. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies ninety minutes later, and with inflation still well above the Fed's 2% target, rate-hike bets are back on the table.
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The other side: Oil's June decline drove most of the expected CPI drop, and core inflation near 2.9% may keep the Fed on a tightening path no matter what the headline says.
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5
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Your job
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440K+ students/yr, new $100K cap
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Grad Student Loan Rules Changed July 1
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The One Big Beautiful Bill killed the Grad PLUS loan program as of July 1. Federal borrowing is now capped at $100,000 for grad students and $200,000 for professional programs — down from unlimited — and the 440,000-plus students per year who relied on those loans need to find private money for the rest.
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The other side: Unlimited federal borrowing fueled tuition inflation for decades, and caps may finally force grad schools to compete on price.
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Off The Stack
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Gold retreated to around $4,100 as rate-hike fears blunted safe-haven demand. — Same trade since March, no fresh catalyst.
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Apple and Microsoft raised device prices $100–$300 on memory chip costs. — Happened late June, still spreading but no new action this week.
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Medicaid work requirements went live in Montana and Arkansas on July 1. — Arkansas delays disenrollments until January 2027; Montana is already enforcing.
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