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1
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Your money
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298.7M barrels — lowest since 1983
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America's oil safety net is at a 43-year low
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The Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped to 298.7 million barrels last week — the lowest since January 1983. The government burned through 6.1 million barrels in one week to keep your gas prices from climbing higher. Oil rose toward $80 Monday, settling near $79, after Iran issued fresh demands that pushed a Hormuz deal further away. Gas is at $4.08 nationally, up 30% from a year ago. The one tool Washington has to keep prices in check is running thin.
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The other side: The SPR still holds roughly 50 days of import coverage, and even a partial Hormuz agreement could send oil prices lower overnight.
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2
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Your home
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6.5% mortgage rate — data at 10am
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July home sales data drops at 10am
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The National Association of Realtors releases July existing home sales at 10am. June came in at 4.09 million annualized — down 2.4% from May — with mortgage rates near 6.5%. On a $400,000 home with 20% down, that rate means about $2,000 a month before taxes and insurance. If you're waiting for housing to thaw, today's number tells you how much longer.
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The other side: June sales were still up 2.8% year-over-year, and a cool CPI print tomorrow could give mortgage rates room to ease.
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3
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Markets
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S&P 7,753 — near record highs
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Near-record stocks, near-record gold, and CPI tomorrow
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The S&P 500 eased to 7,753 Monday after its best week since April. The Dow dipped 0.1%, the Nasdaq slipped 0.3%, and gold held near $4,400. The calm is borrowed time. Tomorrow's CPI report — consensus is 3.4% — decides whether the rally runs or rate-hike fears return.
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The other side: Berkshire Hathaway's 16% earnings growth and SpaceX reclaiming its IPO price suggest the bull market has real support beyond just inflation relief.
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