DAILY STACK
Five stories ranked by Real-Life Impact
Monday, May 25, 2026 · Memorial Day
 
Today's Thesis: Markets are closed today but the week that just ended told you everything you need to know — gas hit $4.55 for the most expensive Memorial Day weekend since 2022, the Dow set a record anyway, a new Fed chair was sworn in with 3.8% inflation on his desk, Barclays warned the oil supply deficit is the worst in five years, and your cookout, your commute, and your 401(k) are all heading into summer priced for a war that still hasn't ended.

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1
Travel $4.55/gal · highest Memorial Day since '22
You're paying $4.55 a gallon this Memorial Day — the most since 2022
The national gas average hit $4.55 heading into Memorial Day weekend — the highest for this holiday since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Prices are up more than 50% since the US-Iran war started on February 28. Barclays warned Friday that global inventories show a 6 to 8 million barrel-per-day deficit, with US stockpiles near their lowest since 2020. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened today, it would take weeks for supply to catch up. If you're planning summer road trips, the math doesn't get better from here unless a deal actually closes.
The other side: Rubio said Thursday there are "good signs" a deal is within reach, and oil fell from $111 to $98 in three days this week — one signed agreement could send pump prices back below $4 within two weeks.
2
Your home Warsh sworn in · mortgage 6.5%+ · FOMC June
The new Fed chair was sworn in Friday — his first test is in three weeks
Kevin Warsh took the oath as Federal Reserve chairman at the White House on Friday, inheriting 3.8% CPI, a 30-year yield that touched a 19-year high this week, and mortgage rates above 6.5%. His first FOMC meeting is in June. The market came into the week pricing a 45% chance of rate hikes by year-end and left the week with that number still intact. Whatever Warsh says publicly in the next three weeks will set the tone for your borrowing costs through the rest of 2026.
The other side: Warsh has signaled openness to alternative inflation measures like trimmed-mean CPI, and if oil continues to fall on Iran deal progress, the energy-driven inflation spike could reverse faster than the headline numbers suggest.
3
Your job 114K tech layoffs YTD · Dell +16% · SpaceX June 12
Tech is hiring for AI and firing everyone else — 114,000 layoffs and counting
Tech layoffs hit 114,173 year to date, with Meta and Oracle among the latest to cut roles. But Dell surged 16% Friday on analyst upgrades tied directly to Nvidia's blowout quarter — AI infrastructure spending is funding one set of jobs while eliminating another. SpaceX targets a June 12 IPO at $1.75 trillion, and OpenAI filed confidentially for a fall listing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
The other side: Unemployment is still at 4.3%, most layoffs are in non-AI roles, and the IPO pipeline means thousands of new public-company jobs — not every cut is a net loss to the labor market.
4
Your money UBS target 7,900 · EPS est $335
UBS just raised its year-end target — your 401(k) has 6% upside if they're right
UBS Global Wealth Management raised its 2026 S&P 500 year-end target to 7,900 from 7,500 on Friday, citing steady consumer spending and data-center demand, and bumped its earnings estimate to $335 per share. That implies about 6% upside from Friday's close for anyone holding a broad index fund.
The other side: Some strategists say the IPO pipeline from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic echoes the late-1990s — when a wave of mega-cap listings marked the top of the market, not the beginning of the next leg up.
5
Markets Dow record · S&P 8 straight weeks · VIX 2-wk low
The Dow set another record and the S&P won its eighth straight week
The Dow closed at a new all-time high Friday for the second day in a row, and the S&P 500 notched its eighth consecutive weekly gain — the longest winning streak since December 2023. The VIX dropped to its lowest level in more than two weeks heading into the holiday.
The other side: The 30-year yield still hit a 19-year high this week, and Plante Moran's Jim Baird told Reuters that "inflation concerns continue to flare" — the rally is running on deal hope, not deal certainty.
Off The Stack
Iran and the US remain at odds over enriched uranium and Hormuz tolls despite "good signs" from Rubio. — Progress is real but nothing is signed, and the nuclear question is the hardest part of any deal.
UMich final May consumer sentiment confirmed at 48.2 — the lowest reading in the survey's history. — Still at the floor, but the number didn't change from the preliminary print, so no new information.
Dell earnings arrive this week — the stock already jumped 16% Friday on analyst upgrades tied to Nvidia's results. — The AI read-through is priced in; the actual numbers will tell you if it holds.
 
Daily Stack · Five stories ranked by Real-Life Impact

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